Pearce's Sell Call Is Eight Rounds Old. His Price Has Dropped $121k Since. The Registry Hasn't Budged.

One score produced a 99. The other nine produced a $121.5k price collapse — and a sell call that hasn't moved since Round 6.

Alex Pearce opened 2026 as a "defensive steal" — $367.3k, a 54 BE, projected to average around 70. Thirteen rounds later he's $245.8k, the registry has said sell since Round 6, and this week's 19 in a 124-point Fremantle demolition of North Melbourne didn't move the needle.

The 99 That's Still Doing the Talking

Round 5 produced a 99 — an outlier so far above everything either side of it that the registry flagged it on arrival as "an enormous outlier against prior averaging of ~40." It's the score that gets remembered. It's also the only one.

The full ledger either side of that 99: 36, 35, 44, then the 99, then 35, 57, 34, 37, 39, 19. Nine sub-60 returns and one 99. If you're still holding Pearce hoping for a repeat of Round 5, you're holding for a one-in-ten outcome that's already happened once this season.

Eight Rounds, One Verdict

Round 6 is where the sell call started: 35 in a 56-point Perth derby demolition — every defender should be feasting in that game, and Pearce returned 19 below his BE.

Round 8 sharpened it: 34 in a 12-point Fremantle win. The registry called it the damning read — "a DEF scoring 34 when his side wins tells you he is not contributing." Price had slipped to $292.2k.

Round 9: 37, below BE again, and confirmed out for Round 10. Price $270.8k.

Round 12 and Round 13 are the same story twice — 39 then 19, both in comfortable Fremantle wins, both below or barely at breakeven. The registry's words for it: "the sixth time he's been below or barely at breakeven in a game his side wins comfortably… nothing here changes it."

The Locked Role That Doesn't Help You

Here's the part that makes this one tricky to act on emotionally: Fremantle isn't dropping Pearce. Role lock is "locked," job security is "strong" — he's not a selection risk. But a secure role in a winning defence that doesn't translate to SC points is exactly the trap. The team result looks fine. Your forward line in SuperCoach doesn't care.

What Holding Has Cost

$367.3k to $245.8k is a $121.5k drop — about a third of his round 1 price, gone. Cash gen has been negative every round since the sell call started, most recently -$2,112 this week. R13 is actually the first round since the sell call began where the price hasn't fallen further — it's held flat at $245.8k, the lowest point of the season. Whether that's a floor or just a pause, the registry isn't betting on it.

The Call From Here

Eight rounds is long enough that this isn't a knee-jerk reaction to one bad game — it's a verdict that's survived a 99, a confirmed out, and six sub-BE returns in winning sides without reversing once. The registry's call stands: sell. If you're still holding for the role to turn into points, the role was never the problem.

Updated: June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

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