Weddle Has Fallen $111k and His BE Is 47. The Registry Has Said Avoid Since Round 1.

The math says buy the dip. The verdict registry has said avoid all season. Here's why both things can be true.

When a mid-pricer falls $111k from peak and sits with a 47 breakeven against a 70-point season average, the spreadsheet logic is compelling. The buy case writes itself. For Joshua Weddle, it's the wrong case to write.

Why Weddle's $320k Price Looks Like Value When It Isn't

The 70-point average is doing a lot of work for old games played in a different role.

Weddle posted 80 in Round 1 and 89 in Round 2 playing in his natural defensive position. Strong scores. Then Round 3: omitted. Returned in Round 5 with a tentative 71. Scraped 67 in Round 6. Scored 62 in Round 7 in a 49-point Hawthorn win — an opportunity game where 62 is not what you want. Then Round 8: 35. Nine disposals. 22% disposal efficiency. Missed a set shot from 15 metres directly in front in a drawn MCG thriller. Round 9: 58 at Perth, still losing $4,641 per week.

The 3-game rolling average from Rounds 7–9 is 51.7. That's the number driving his price. Not 70. Fifty-one. And the price has been moving accordingly — $432.2k to $320.8k, still bleeding as of Round 9.

The Role Problem the Average Doesn't Show

Weddle's ceiling is real. When he's playing defence — intercept marking, clean exit kicks, metres gained on the wing — he produces. That's who he is.

He's not doing that right now. He's stationed in the forward line where his kicking efficiency is exposed and his set-shot accuracy is poor. The signals at Round 9: role disrupted, job security watching, cash gen losing. Tom Butler is pushing for his spot. None of that has resolved.

The season average of 70 includes the rounds where the role was locked. The current scoring reflects the rounds where it isn't. Coaches looking at the 70 are looking at a player who doesn't exist right now at $320k.

Should You Buy Weddle at $320k in SuperCoach 2026?

Not yet, for me.

The floor argument has something to it. If Hawthorn shifts Weddle back to defence and the role locks in, the scoring returns and so does the price. That recovery is real if it happens. A 47 BE against a healthy-role scoring average of 75–80 is genuine cash gen.

But buying $320k into a broken role, with Butler pushing for his spot, on a 51-point rolling average, is a specific bet: that the role resolves within 1–2 rounds and scores snap back above 70 immediately. The data doesn't support that bet right now.

The $111k this player has already lost feels like the painful part. The sunk cost. But SC doesn't work on what happened before — it works on what the player does from here. And from here, the signal hasn't turned.

Wait and see. Not the floor. Not yet.

Updated: 26 May 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. Ask our coach what the current Weddle signal looks like — and tell it you think it's wrong — on Joshua Weddle's profile.