Tom Blamires Has the Highest Value Score on the Board. So Why Does Half the Competition Still Not Have Him?

Tom Blamires was a 40% confidence call at Round 1. An amber light. The kind of preseason tip that made sense to ignore if you had better options.

Four rounds later, he has the highest value score of any cash cow on the RookieBible board at 8.06.

The coaches who backed him — or who found him at minimum price after he proved his spot — have been cashing cheques all season. The coaches who didn't are now staring at a $227,400 entry price wondering if the remaining cash gen justifies the trade.

This is The Late Cash Play Problem. Here's how to solve it.

---

The Numbers First

Price: $227,400
Season average: 70.3
Rolling 3-game average: 73.3
Breakeven: 33
Value score: 8.06

The standout figure is the gap between his rolling average and his breakeven. At 33, his price only needs him to score 33 points to not go backwards. He's scoring 73.3. That's 40 points of breathing room every round — a buffer large enough that even a quiet 55-point game barely registers as a threat to his price trajectory.

For perspective: a player with a 33 breakeven and 73 average is one of the most comfortable holds on the board. His price isn't going backwards. The question is only how much further it goes up.

---

Where He Came From

Blamires arrived at North Melbourne from Frankston VFL, where he'd earned a Team of the Year spot at half-back. His preseason intel had him as "SC Playbook #4 MID cheapie" — the type of player who builds his price through accumulation rather than ceiling games.

He plays with freedom in North's midfield structure. At 181cm he's not going to take dominant possession marks, but he finds the ball consistently, uses it cleanly, and turns up in tackle counts. His round-to-round scores look like a cash cow built for longevity: 70.3 season average without a single aberrant ceiling score dragging the number up.

That's the profile. No flukes, no outliers, just a player doing enough every week to generate value.

---

How Much Cash Is Left?

This is the honest question for anyone considering a late buy.

Blamires started the season as a rookie-priced player. He's already made his early owners a significant return. The remaining cash gen depends on where his average settles as North Melbourne's season unfolds.

If he averages 73-76 through the mid-season: his price should track toward $280-300k. That's $50-75k in remaining cash for anyone buying in at $227k today. Solid, not spectacular.

If he kicks up to 80+: either his role has expanded, or a teammate is missing and Blamires is filling time on ball. In that scenario, $310-320k isn't outrageous. That's a genuine $85-95k return on a $227k investment.

If he regresses to 60-65: he's still above his 33 breakeven, his price keeps edging up, but the gap narrows. The cash story gets slower, not broken.

The floor is genuinely strong. That's what a 33 breakeven buys you.

---

Round 5: North Melbourne vs Brisbane

North Melbourne host Brisbane on Saturday April 11. Brisbane are a top-four contender this year and come into this game off a Round 4 rest.

For Blamires specifically, Brisbane's midfield pressure is among the highest in the competition — they're a team that forces quick ball use and punishes players who hold the ball. If Blamires' game is based on disposal efficiency and movement, Brisbane will test him.

A realistic range for him in Round 5: 60-85. His floor in this matchup sits around 55, which still clears his 33 breakeven by a comfortable margin. The ceiling at 85+ would require North to get on top of Brisbane at home, which isn't impossible but is far from a given.

From a cash cow management perspective, this round doesn't create a crisis. He might have a tighter game than his recent rolling average, and that's fine.

---

The MID Cash Cow Landscape

It helps to know what you're comparing Blamires against before committing a trade.

Jagga Smith (Carlton, MID — $271,800, rolling 3: 90.3, BE 40): Smith is averaging more and costing more. He's past the stage where late buyers get meaningful cash. If you don't already have Smith, the remaining upside from $271k is slim.

Jack Watkins (Port Adelaide, MID — $181,500, rolling 3: 50.0, BE 27): A FORM_BREAKOUT signal, not a cash cow. Cheaper entry, higher variance. He's been trending up but his season average is 40.3 — there's risk in that divergence between season and rolling numbers.

Jack Carroll (St Kilda, MID — $180,900, rolling 3: 47.7, BE 27): Cheaper, lower floor, lower ceiling. Basic cash cow utility without Blamires' established form base.

Blamires leads this group on value score by a significant margin. The argument for preferring Watkins or Carroll is purely budget — if you can't afford $227k, those are the alternatives. If budget isn't the constraint, Blamires is the cleaner cash play.

---

The Verdict

If you have him: hold. His 33 breakeven means a down week doesn't break you. The cash is still coming. Let it run until mid-season, then reassess whether the remaining gain justifies the roster spot.

If you don't have him: the late buy case exists but it's tighter than it was. You're buying $50-80k in probable remaining cash gen, a low-floor hold with good bye coverage in the mid-season calendar, and a player who's proven he belongs.

The case against is simply timing — the sharpest gains happened in Rounds 1-3. If your team's upgrade path requires $80k+ cash gen from a mid trade, Blamires can still deliver that. If you need $150k cash gen, the ship has sailed.

One thing that's not up for debate: his value score of 8.06 is the best on the board. The coaches who ignored the amber light are paying a higher price to get him now.

---

Data current as of Round 4 analytics. Price projections are estimates based on current rolling averages. Always check official AFL team sheets before lockout.