He Was Averaging 137. He Scored 41 in Round 13. The Registry Called Sell. Here's the Pattern It Saw.
A 137-average mid in a Sydney side that was winning. Round 13: 41. 29 below BE. Ownership at 0%. The community logic says you don't sell on one bad game. The registry disagreed. Here's why.
He Was Averaging 137. He Scored 41 in Round 13. The Registry Called Sell. Here's the Pattern It Saw.
A 137-average mid in a Sydney side that was winning. Round 13: 41. 29 below BE. Ownership at 0%. The community logic says you don't sell on one bad game. The registry disagreed. Here's why.
The instinct when a 137-average player scores 41 is to hold. One bad week. Regression to mean. Justin McInerney is a Sydney midfielder with a 137 SC average — you don't dump a player like that after a single quiet round.
Except the registry called sell at round 13. And it wasn't close.
What the Market Saw
A premium mid. 137 average. Owned by 0% of coaches (the crowd had already cleared out). Price sitting at $441.8k — roughly where it's been for a month. A 41 in a week where he wasn't himself.
The standard SC logic: 41s happen to 137-average mids. Hold through, collect the bounce-back. One bad week doesn't tell you anything structural about a player of this calibre.
What the Registry Saw
The 41 wasn't the problem. The problem was the sequence of games that led to it.
Round 8: 110. Quality performance in a genuine contest. The registry held.
Round 9: 64. Below his 67 BE in a close game where he should have featured more. The registry held — one below-average round, structural role intact.
Round 10: 137. Erupts in Sydney's 6-point win over Collingwood. Elite output. This is the score that inflates the season average and gives the hold thesis oxygen.
Round 12: 58. Seven points below his 65 BE in a 114-point demolition of Richmond — the most favourable possible conditions for racking up disposals. When every other Sydney player was feasting, McInerney had a quiet one. The registry held, but the language shifted: "you don't trade a 137-average premium out after one funny score in a 114-point win." One funny score. That's the BE-facing signal already showing.
Round 13: 41. Twenty-nine below his 70 BE. Cash gen: negative at -$71/week. Ownership: 0%. Price: unchanged at $441.8k — which means no one was buying, and the next price move is down.
Registry call: sell.
The Pattern the Average Hides
Here's the full scoring run across the rounds the registry tracked: 142, 90, 77, 97, 96, 74, 110, 64, 137, 58, 41.
Pull out the 142 opening performance and the 137 in round 10 and you've got a mid who's scoring in the 60s-90s with alarming frequency. The 137 season average is real, but it's carrying two monster games across a season of inconsistency.
The other number: McInerney started the season at $476.8k. By round 13 he was at $441.8k. He'd been in your squad all season and his price had gone backwards. Cash gen was effectively dead from round 5 onwards — flat to negative for months on end. You weren't making money off him. You were holding a volatile mid and hoping the good weeks outnumbered the bad.
At round 9, the registry called it explicitly: "one below-BE score doesn't move the needle on a premium with a 93.5 average." True. But by round 12, the BE had crept up to 65, the price had dropped to $441.8k, and the consistency pattern was sending signals.
The Case For Selling
This is not a sell because he scored 41. It's a sell because:
The price is falling, not rising. From $476.8k at the start of the season to $441.8k at round 13 — you've lost money holding him all year. Cash gen has been flat to negative for most of the second half.
Ownership is at 0%. The premo crowd doesn't hold positions indefinitely. When the crowd leaves a player this quickly, there's usually a reason the registry agrees with.
The BE of 70 at $441.8k means his price drops further after a 41. He needs to average 70 just to hold value. He's been scoring well below that in most non-monster weeks.
The scoring volatility is structural, not episodic. 137 one week, 64 the next, 137 again, then 58, then 41. This isn't a player who averages 137 with the occasional quiet week — it's a player whose average is inflated by two outlier performances in a volatile scoring cycle.
The registry verdict: "indefensible at this price."
The Position
Sell McInerney at round 13.
Not because he scored 41. Because across 11 rounds of data, the registry watched cash gen stagnate, price decline, ownership evaporate, and consistency fail to arrive. The 137 on his scoring profile is real. The rest of the picture is not.
Holding a 137-average player through a 41 is standard SC thinking. But the registry doesn't sell on one score — it sells when the full picture says the value has already left the building.
At round 13, it had.
Updated: July 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. See Justin McInerney's full verdict history →
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