Caminiti's Breakeven Is 29 and His Average Is 43. This Is What a Value Trap Looks Like.
His BE is 29. His average is 43. On paper that's a hold. The registry has called avoid for eight straight rounds and the price arc backs it.
Caminiti's Breakeven Is 29 and His Average Is 43. This Is What a Value Trap Looks Like.
His BE is 29. His average is 43. Every week it looks like a hold. The registry has said avoid for eight straight rounds.
Anthony Caminiti opened 2026 as a $358.8k DEF with a 53 BE and a clean St Kilda role. Round 1 delivered a 70. Then Round 2 happened — a 4 that wiped out the narrative — and every round since has told the same story.
Should I Hold Anthony Caminiti in SuperCoach 2026?
The headline numbers are keeping coaches patient: BE of 29, season average of 43. Average clears the BE, so the price should be trending up. That's the logic. Here's why it's wrong.
Look at the last four rounds with context:
- Round 7: 19 in a 101-point St Kilda WIN over West Coast. His team demolished West Coast and he scored 19 SC points. Not a bad day — a player who barely featured in a game that was over at half-time.
- Round 8: 32 in a 39-point win over Carlton. The registry flagged VFL return as near-certain.
- Round 9: 35 in a 29-point road loss. Marginally above his BE at the time.
- Round 10: 43 in a 36-point home thumping of Richmond.
Four-round average of 32.25 — in games St Kilda were winning comfortably for most of them. That's the floor. Not the average.
Why the BE Doesn't Tell You What You Think
The BE has come DOWN from 53 (start of season) to 29 (Round 10). That's not a sign of improvement — it's what happens when the price craters. The reason the breakeven now looks easy to clear is that $160k has already been lost.
The price arc: $358.8k → $276.3k → $227.3k → $204.7k → $198.6k. Cash gen burning at -$6,408 per round. The season average of 43 sounds stable until you separate it from his early-season games and look at what he's actually doing now.
The tell was Round 7: 19 in a 101-point win. A player who scored 19 while his team put 150-odd on the board is not in the gameplan. That's not a ceiling that unlocks with better fixtures. That's a role that's already gone.
The Call
Avoid. Not "wait and see for me" — avoid, move on. The BE vs average gap looks fine on the surface and that's exactly the trap. The exit window at $198k-ish is still open. At 8 straight avoid verdicts and a floor of 19 in a dominant team win, there is no restoration story here.
Don't anchor to the $358.8k entry price. The registry called this eight rounds ago.
Updated: 27 May 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. Ask about Caminiti's current situation →
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