Humphrey's Averaging 74. Strip Out Two Scores and It's 52. Three Straight Sell Verdicts Haven't Changed.

The 74 average is hiding a mid-pricer who's been pricing down since Round 6.

Bailey Humphrey started the season at $443k with a 116 in the practice match. That number set expectations. Eight rounds later, he's at $352k and the registry has said sell three times running.

Why the Average Lies

His season scores: 116, 54, DNP, 78, 66, 29, 103, 45, 78, 42.

That 74-ish average looks serviceable. But strip out the 116 pre-season number and the R9 103 — both outliers in blowout wins — and you're staring at a player averaging 52 from his remaining games. That's not a premo. That's a mid-pricer bleeding cash at a premium-adjacent price.

What the Market Thinks

The 74 average against a 65 BE is the trap. On paper, that gap says he's clearing breakeven comfortably. The market sees a player whose average is above his BE and figures the price will hold.

It won't. That R13 42 — in a game Gold Coast lost by 31 points — is the kind of score that tanks the 3-round weighted average and triggers the next price drop. Cash gen is flat at $0. He's not making you money and he's not scoring like a premium.

What the Registry Sees

The verdict pattern is clear:

• R8: Sell. Scored 29 in a comfortable 20-point home win over GWS. No match context to hide behind.
• R10: Sell. Scored 45 in another comfortable home win. The R9 103 bounce-back looked like the anomaly, not the norm.
• R11: Sell. Scored 78 in a tight 6-point loss to North Melbourne — decent, but cash gen still negative at -$3,500/wk.
• R13: Sell. Scored 42 in a 31-point home loss to Brisbane where midfielders should still feast.

Four of his last six scores are under 50 or in the low-to-mid 60s. The volatility is the problem — you can't plan your trades around a player who swings between 29 and 103 with no pattern.

The Call

Humphrey at $352k with a 74 average and three straight sell verdicts is a classic hold trap. The average says he's fine. The scores say he's not. Cash gen is flat, price is falling, and the only reason to keep him is hoping for another R9-style spike.

Hope isn't a strategy in SC. Sell him this week, bank what's left of the $352k, and redirect into a genuine premo or a cash cow with actual growth runway.

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Updated: 19 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

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