Fritsch Just Posted 104. The Registry Has Said Sell Three Rounds Running. Here's Why the Verdict Stands.

One big game doesn't reverse a season of chronic inconsistency — and the data makes that uncomfortably clear.

Bayley Fritsch put up 104 in Melbourne's 8-point away win over Collingwood in Round 13. If you've been holding him through the last three rounds of sell verdicts, you're probably feeling vindicated. The registry isn't.

Does a 104 change the verdict on Fritsch?

104 in a genuine arm-wrestle at the MCG is a real score. No asterisks — 8-point win away to Collingwood is proper output. But here's the issue with flipping from sell to hold on the back of one performance: Fritsch has been doing this all season.

His R7 94 came after returning from a R4 foot injury. Then R8: 52. Then R9: 61 in a comfortable 32-point Melbourne home win over West Coast — 13 disposals, no goals, in a game where Melbourne were barely challenged. That's when the registry first said sell.

R10: 73 in a 39-point demolition of Hawthorn. R12: 41 in a 49-point hammering by GWS. Now R13: 104.

The score sequence since his R3 season ceiling: 91, 59, 66, 94, 52, 61, 73, 41, 104. That's not a player finding form — that's a player oscillating between two modes with no predictive signal for which you'll get on any given week.

The $308k price and a 67 average don't add up

Season average is 67 at $308k-ish. His BE sits at 56 this round, so he cleared it by 48. Cash gen is only +$641/wk — barely positive. His price has shed over $65k from the $373k peak in R7.

The R12 verdict was the starkest: confidence 9, sell, and explicit — "every week you hold is another price drop." That was before the 41. Now the 104 arrives and the temptation to hold intensifies. But the registry's threshold hasn't shifted: three consecutive genuine contests above 80 is what tips this from inconsistent-but-ceilinged to reliable-enough-to-hold. He's at one.

The Melbourne game-script risk is structural

When the game script goes wrong for Melbourne, Fritsch's disposal count collapses. His worst outputs this season — 52, 41 — are correlated with Melbourne getting beaten up. The 41 came in a 49-point loss. The 52 in a 17-point away loss at the SCG. That context doesn't disappear because he found one good game.

The Dees had a 49-point loss and an 8-point win in back-to-back rounds. Which Fritsch shows up is partly a coin flip on Melbourne's game-script — and that's not a risk premium worth paying at $308k with a 67 average.

Should you hold or sell Fritsch after Round 13?

Sell if you still have him. The 104 has propped your price up slightly — this is the exit window you've been waiting for three rounds. At $308k with a 67 average, there are better forward options generating more consistent cash and with fewer game-script dependencies.

Wait and see for me if you don't own him. The inconsistency thesis stands until he strings together three clean 80+ scores in genuine contests. One is not three.

Updated: June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets.