Fritsch Scored 104 Against Collingwood. Three Straight Sell Verdicts Say It Doesn't Matter.

One big score doesn't fix a season-long inconsistency pattern. The registry has been right on Fritsch since Round 9.

Bayley Fritsch dropped 104 in Melbourne's 8-point away win over Collingwood in Round 13 — 48 points above his 56 BE in a genuine arm-wrestle. If you own him, you felt vindicated for about fifteen minutes before checking his season average. It's still 67.

The registry has said sell since Round 9. The 104 hasn't changed that.

The score that changes nothing

Here's the sequence since Round 7, when Fritsch last looked like a premium forward: 94, 52, 61, 73, 41, 104. Strip out the 94 and the 104 and you're averaging 56.75 across four rounds. That's barely above breakeven for a player priced at $308k.

The 104 against Collingwood was real — 8-point game, away from home, Melbourne needed it. But one score above 90 in six rounds is not a return to form. It's a reminder that the ceiling exists while the floor keeps caving in.

Why owners are holding

Loss aversion, mostly. Fritsch started the year at $366k, scored 91 in Round 3, and looked like he'd push past $400k. Then the foot injury hit in R4, the return was cautious (66 in R6), and he's been bleeding value ever since. The price has shed $58k.

Selling at $308k means eating that loss. Nobody wants to trade out a player who just scored 104. The 104 feels like evidence that the sell was premature. It isn't.

The pattern the market ignores

Fritsch's season, score by score: 85, 76, 91, injury, 59, 66, 94, 52, 61, 73, injury, 41, 104.

Count the scores above 80: four out of eleven games. Count the scores below 70: five out of eleven. For a player who needs to average 56 just to hold his price, that ratio would be fine. For a player priced and owned as a premium forward option, it's a death spiral with occasional signs of life.

Cash gen has been negative or flat for most of the season. The +$641/wk after the 104 is a blip driven by one score, not a trend reversal. At $308k with a 67 average, you're holding a mid-pricer who occasionally remembers he's good.

The sell window is now

Sell into the 104 — seriously. This is your exit window, not your hold-through-the-pain vindication moment. The market will briefly price the ceiling back in after a 104, and that's exactly when you want to be getting out.

Three straight sell verdicts (R9, R10, R12) were all built on the same thesis: chronic inconsistency in a player whose price assumes consistency. The 104 doesn't disprove that thesis. It's the fourth data point in a pattern of one good score followed by two or three bad ones.

The $308k is better deployed elsewhere. Every round you hold Fritsch waiting for the turnaround that never sticks is a round you're not compounding cash in a player with a real trajectory. If he strings together three genuine contests above 80, the registry will flip back to buy. Until then, the R13 score is your gift — use it.

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Updated: 23 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

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