Hill Is Averaging 47 With a $394k Price Tag. The Registry Just Said Buy. Here's What the Average Is Hiding.

The 47 isn't the story. Four straight rounds of 100+ in the middle of the season is.

Most coaches will look at Bradley Hill at $394.8k with a season average of 47 and close the tab. That's the right instinct for a player averaging 47. It's the wrong instinct for Hill in 2026.

Why is Bradley Hill's season average only 47?

Hill posted 47 in R10 — first genuine miss after four straight 100+ scores, flagged immediately as a vest or rotation situation in a 36-point St Kilda win over Richmond. His cash gen was still positive at $2,524/wk so the price hadn't reacted yet. Then R11: 68 in a 30-point road loss at Perth. R12: 68 again in a 52-point home loss to Hawthorn.

Three rounds of 47, 68, 68 dragged the season average down to 47. But those three rounds came immediately after four consecutive 100+ scores — 106, 102, 103, 106 in rounds 6 through 9. That's injury disruption and rotation pulling the average down, not structural decline.

The R12 sell verdict was price-driven: "season average of 47 at $394.8k is completely indefensible." Technically correct. The average was indefensible. The ceiling was still there.

The actual ceiling data

Rounds 6–9: 106, 102, 103, 106. Four consecutive 100+ scores. The registry was buy-rated across all four. This wasn't a hot streak — it was 281-game midfield output from a player operating in a settled St Kilda role under proper game-time. Four in a row at that level is baseline, not aberration.

His R13 score of 98 came in St Kilda's 2-point thriller at the SCG — the highest-pressure game of the round. 98 in that context is the ceiling showing back up. That's 39 points above his 59 BE, and it didn't come in garbage time.

Is Bradley Hill worth buying at $394k?

At $394.8k-ish, Hill looks expensive for a player averaging 47. But the 47 is a disrupted number. Before the three-round dip, he was averaging around 80+ and his price was built on that. If he strings together two or three clean rounds at ceiling level, cash gen kicks back in and the price starts tracking north again.

BE is 59. He cleared it by 39 in R13. Cash gen is +$464/wk right now — barely positive — but that changes quickly if the 98 is the start of a sequence and not another isolated bounce.

The registry's confidence is 6, so this is a 6/10 conviction buy, not a lock. The sticking point is the three disruption rounds before R13. If those were genuinely role-related rather than form-related, the 98 is the signal returning. If there's ongoing vest risk, you're buying a ceiling that only materialises 60% of the time.

The verdict

Buy — but calibrate your conviction to the confidence level. This is a ceiling-recovery play at a price that still reflects his pre-disruption form. If you have a trade this round and need a mid who can go 100+, Hill is the argument. His 106, 102, 103, 106 run isn't ancient history — it was six rounds ago.

For coaches who already own him: hold. The R12 sell was fair at the time; the R13 98 changes the calculus. Don't trade out a player who just went 98 in a 2-point thriller.

Updated: June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets.