Hill's Price Has Dropped $70k Since Round 9. He Just Scored 98 in a 2-Point Thriller. The Registry Says Buy.
The market has sold Bradley Hill after three quiet weeks. His price has dropped $70k since R9. The registry says buy — here's why the 98 in a 2-point thriller matters more than the dip.
Hill's Price Has Dropped $70k Since Round 9. He Just Scored 98 in a 2-Point Thriller. The Registry Says Buy.
The market is selling Bradley Hill for the wrong reason. His season average masks a mid-year hot streak that looks more like his baseline than his ceiling.
Bradley Hill is sitting at $394.8k-ish with a BE of 59. On paper, the season average makes him look like a mid-pricer who peaked too early. Coaches who bought him at $465k in Round 9 have watched $70k evaporate. Most have already moved on.
The registry disagrees.
What the market sees
Three underwhelming scores — 47, 68, 68 across Rounds 10–12 — after four consecutive 100+ games. The natural reading: the hot streak was the outlier, the 60s are the real Hill, and the price correction is justified.
At around 1% ownership, almost nobody holds him anymore. The market has made its call.
What the registry sees
Those four 100+ rounds weren't noise. R6: 106 in a 1-point loss to Adelaide. R7: 102. R8: 103 in a 39-point away win. R9: 106 in a 29-point loss at Marrara — 9 marks and 25 disposals in a game his team got belted. That's not garbage time. That's a player whose role expanded and held.
The R10 dip (47) came in a 36-point Saints home win — classic R&R in a blowout. R11 and R12 produced 68s, both clearing breakeven. Then R13: 98 in St Kilda's 2-point SCG thriller against Sydney. That's proper output in the highest-pressure game of the round.
His actual season average across 13 games sits around the 84 mark. The $394.8k price tag suggests a player averaging 65. That gap is the anomaly.
The cash gen maths
At $394.8k with a 59 BE, Hill needs to average around 60 to hold his price. He's been doing that comfortably when he plays in contests. The R6–R9 run pushed his price north of $465k; the R10–R12 dip pulled it back to roughly where he started the season. If the R13 score is more indicator than outlier — and the registry thinks it is — the cash gen window has reopened.
Put it this way: you're getting a player who has four 100+ scores and a 98 this season, at the same price he was in Round 1. The market priced in the bad weeks but hasn't priced in the recovery.
The call
Buy at $394.8k, for me. The 98 in a genuine contest confirms the R6–R9 ceiling isn't dead — it was resting through some rotation-impacted blowouts. The BE is manageable at 59, the ownership is negligible at 1%, and the price has already absorbed the worst of the dip.
The risk: St Kilda's fixture gets harder, or the R10–R12 scores were early-stage decline rather than R&R compression. But at this price and with this ceiling proven four times this year, the risk-reward tilts buy.
If you're looking for a MID premo at mid-pricer cost with genuine 100+ ceiling and a 59 BE you'd expect from a cash cow, Hill is probably the most mispriced player on the board right now.
Updated: 23 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
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