Wilson's Averaging 114 at $450k With 0% Ownership. Five Straight Buy Verdicts Say the Market Is Asleep.

A 20-year-old MID averaging 114 with a locked role, strong JS, and captain viability — priced $150k below where he should be. The registry has said buy five rounds running and hit confidence 9 in R12.

If you're paying 600k-plus for a premo MID averaging less than Darcy Wilson, the math isn't working in your favour.

Wilson's sitting at 450k-ish with a 114 average, a 53 BE, and cash gen still ticking over. That's premium production at mid-pricer cost. His role is locked, his JS is strong, and the registry rates him captain viable. Zero percent of coaches own him.

How did the market miss a MID averaging 114?

The early-season numbers hid him. Wilson started with holds across R0 to R5 — scores of 49, 78, 102, 57, 57. That 102 in R2 looked like an outlier inflating his average. The registry flagged a ceiling capped in the 57–70 range and moved on.

Then R6. Wilson posted 95 in a 1-point loss to Adelaide — not garbage time, not a blowout stat-pad. A genuine captain-viable effort in the tightest arm-wrestle of the round. The registry flipped to buy.

The back-to-back that confirmed the ceiling is real

R9: 112 points in a losing side. He accounted for roughly half of St Kilda's total score in a 29-point away loss at Marrara. The registry called it a "ceiling-reveal performance" — not a cheap inflation — and went to confidence 8.

R10: 114 points against Richmond in a 36-point win. Back-to-back three-figure scores from a MID at $427k. Confidence 8 again, captain viable.

Two straight 112-plus scores in competitive games is not a fluke. That's a player who's broken through and the price hasn't caught up.

R12 was the loudest signal the registry has sent all season

Wilson scored 94 in a 52-point loss to Hawthorn. His team got belted — he still cleared his 66 BE by 28 points with cash gen running at $4,237 per week.

The registry went to confidence 9 buy. Called him "the best value mid in the comp" and said this is "the kind of pick that wins leagues."

That was two rounds ago. Still 0% ownership.

The R13 floor check

Latest: 83 in R13. Below his lofty 114 average, but still 30 above his 53 BE. Cash gen positive. Role locked. JS strong.

Five straight buy verdicts. Confidence peaked at 9. Not a single sell or avoid call since R5.

| Round | Score | BE | Verdict | Confidence | |-------|-------|----|---------|------------| | R6 | 95 | 54 | Buy | 6 | | R9 | 112 | 58 | Buy | 8 | | R10 | 114 | 63 | Buy | 8 | | R12 | 94 | 66 | Buy | 9 | | R13 | 83 | 53 | Buy | 6 |

What you're actually getting at 450k

Wilson's price reflects a player averaging somewhere in the low 70s. He's averaging 114. That's around 150k-ish below where a player with that output should be sitting.

His 53 BE means he only needs to score in the mid-50s to keep the price climbing. He's been clearing that by 30 to 60 points most weeks.

The scoring pattern says the floor is around 80 and the ceiling is 114-plus. For context, that's MID1 territory in most squads — and you're paying MID5 money for it.

At 20 years old with 53 games under his belt, the role isn't going anywhere. This isn't a flash-in-the-pan cash cow about to get tagged — it's a young premium who's arrived early and the market hasn't adjusted.

The verdict

Buy. The registry has said it five times running. The market hasn't listened once. At 0% ownership he's the biggest POD in the comp — a set-and-forget premo MID at a mid-pricer price with captain upside.

The question isn't whether to bring him in. It's how many weeks of value you've already left on the table.

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Updated: 20 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

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