Callaghan's Price Has Dropped $111k Since Round 1. He Just Scored 104 and 144 Back-to-Back. The Registry Says Buy at Confidence 8.
Callaghan's price has dropped $111k but he just scored 104 and 144 back-to-back. The registry says buy at confidence 8. The market is still pricing in a two-round tag scare from R6-R7.
Callaghan's Price Has Dropped $111k Since Round 1. He Just Scored 104 and 144 Back-to-Back. The Registry Says Buy at Confidence 8.
The market is still pricing in the R6-R7 tag scare. The registry stopped doing that three rounds ago.
Finn Callaghan started the year at 605k-ish as a genuine top-tier premo MID. Twelve rounds later he's sitting around 495k — a 111k drop — and most coaches have either moved on or filed him under "too much hassle." That's the anomaly. The price says he's damaged goods. The output says he's one of the best value premiums in the comp.
What the market remembers
Two rounds of pain. R6 against Sydney, Jordan tagged him and he managed 65 in a 41-point loss. R7 against North at Manuka, no tag excuse, another 66. The registry called sell after R7 at confidence 7 — fair call at the time. Price started sliding from 535k and hasn't stopped.
The community split around 55/45 on whether to bring him back in, with the majority saying "fix your structure first, Callaghan can wait." That's the consensus the market's sitting on right now. Wait and see.
What the registry sees now
The tag scare was a two-round blip. Here's what happened after:
- R8: 110 in a 20-point away loss at Carrara. Genuine performance under pressure.
- R9: 100 at home against Essendon. Clean score in a 14-point win.
- R10: 79 on the road against West Coast. Below average, but cleared his 71 BE.
- R11: 104 as GWS smashed Brisbane by 78 at Sydney Showground.
- R12: 144 — 71 points above his 73 BE. Premium output in capital letters.
Three of his last five are 100-plus. Two of his last two are 104 and 144. The registry called buy in R8, buy in R9, watch in R10 (correctly pumped the brakes for one round), then buy at confidence 7 in R11 and buy at confidence 8 in R12.
That's four buy calls in five rounds while the price kept dropping. The market's looking at the season average and seeing the R6-R7 dip dragging it down. The registry's looking at recent form and seeing a premo MID operating at full ceiling.
The cash gen angle
Cash gen is still mildly negative at around -4.1k per week — his price is still correcting from the 605k peak. But that corrects fast when you're putting up 104 and 144. Two more above-average scores and the price reverses. Buying at 495k before that happens is the entire thesis.
At his current trajectory you'd expect him to be closer to 530-540k within a couple of rounds. That's 35-45k of upside you're banking on top of the on-field premium output.
The position
Buy. At 495k-ish for a MID who just posted back-to-back 104 and 144, the tag risk is the only reason he's this cheap — and he's answered that question emphatically over the last five rounds. The community's "wait and see" consensus from a few rounds back was defensible at the time. It's not anymore.
GWS are flying and Callaghan is their engine room. The buy window is open but it won't stay open if he puts up another ton this week.
Updated: 21 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
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