45% Are Waiting on Holmes's DEF DPP Before Buying. The Price Won't Wait With Them.

Holmes is averaging 128, his BE is 85, and cash gen has gone flat. The DPP is real upside — but it's not your trigger.

The Max Holmes DEF DPP has been "pretty likely" for three rounds now. 45% of coaches who don't own him are using that uncertainty as a reason to wait. 35% are holding all trades regardless. 20% have already gone to Merrett instead. None of these views are wrong — but they're not all right for the right reason.

What the DPP camp is actually waiting for

The case for waiting is structural, not financial. If you need a DEF-slot upgrade and Holmes gets DEF status at the next positional review, the trade becomes much cleaner — you're not using a MID trade to fill a DEF slot, Holmes fills exactly where you need him. That's real flexibility that costs you almost nothing to wait for.

What it's not: a reason to expect a cheaper entry. Cash gen is running at -$858/round, meaning Holmes is drifting slowly from $579.4k. Waiting three weeks saves you maybe $2-3k on entry. That's not a financial argument — it's patience for a structural reason.

What the registry has on Max Holmes

The registry called Holmes a buy from R1 through R8, with a 149 ceiling confirmed at Geelong's demolition of North Melbourne in R8. The R9 verdict shifted to hold after a 91 in a 54-point blowout — some garbage time volume in that number, and the price has gone flat since.

"Hold" for existing owners. For coaches considering trading him in: 128 average, 85 BE, price at or near its floor. That is a buy window for coaches who've been putting it off since the 149.

The DEF DPP upgrade has been in speculation since R6 when Holmes moved to a defensive flank role. The registry has tracked it round by round. It hasn't confirmed — but 34% DEF positioning is close to threshold. If it lands, Holmes gains position flexibility. If it doesn't, he's still averaging 128.

Should you wait for the DPP or move now?

Wait if you specifically need the DEF status for your team structure. One more week costs you almost nothing in price movement, and if the positional review lands in your favour, you're grateful you held.

Don't wait if you're sitting on a MID-slot upgrade and you've been stalling for no structural reason. Holmes at 128 average is the answer with or without the DEF tag. The 35% holding all trades regardless are being too cautious — this is a clear target if you need a mid premium.

The Merrett argument

The 20% who've moved to Merrett are making a fixture-window call. The registry doesn't have a live verdict on Merrett, so that comparison is yours to run. What the registry will say: Holmes at 128 average is a known quantity for the rest of 2026, regardless of fixture. If you're choosing between them, you're choosing between proven output and a short-term bet on opponents.

For most coaches, the question isn't Holmes vs Merrett. It's Holmes now vs Holmes after DPP confirms. The answer depends on whether you need the DEF status. If you do, wait. If you don't, the buy window is open now.

Updated: 3 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. Check the live Holmes verdict →