Reeves Bounced from 35 to 87 Last Time He Had a Horror Floor. He Just Scored 31 Again.
Ned Reeves bounced from 35 to 87 last time he had a horror floor. He just scored 31 again. The registry says this time the pattern lands differently — and it called sell.
Reeves Bounced from 35 to 87 Last Time He Had a Horror Floor. He Just Scored 31 Again.
The pattern coaches are relying on to hold Reeves is the same pattern the registry used to call sell.
Ned Reeves has one of the cleaner ceiling profiles in the ruck pool: 104 in R1, 85 in R6, 87 in R8. At $313.7k averaging 84.5 against a 46 BE, the numbers technically say value. The registry says sell, and it says it because of the other side of that profile — 35 in R7, 31 in R9.
The Bounce Story That's Keeping Coaches In
The R7-to-R8 sequence is doing a lot of work in coaching minds right now.
Reeves posted 35 in R7 in a loss. Most coaches held — the ceiling was too real to exit at a horror score. R8: he bounced to 87 in the MCG draw against Collingwood, 38 above his 49 BE. The buy call after R8 was right. R5 74, R6 85, R8 87 — that was the real pattern. The R7 floor was the outlier.
So when R9 produced a 31 in a 15-point away loss at Perth Stadium — a genuine game, not garbage time — the coaches holding are telling themselves they know how this ends: one horror floor, then an 80-plus bounce. Same pattern. Hold through it.
That's the framing that keeps coaches in the wrong players for too long.
Why This Floor Is Different
One sub-35 from a ruck at this ceiling is survivable. Two is a pattern.
The R9 31 at Perth Stadium was a genuine competitive game. Hawthorn lost 73-88 in a contest that was alive deep into the third quarter. There's no blowout explanation for 31 in a game like that. That's the same thing R7 was: a competitive game where Reeves simply didn't fire.
Two sub-35 outings in two different genuine game contexts is what the registry put its weight on. Not the ceiling — the ceiling is real. But at $313.7k, you're paying for the 87, not the 31. When reaching the 87 requires riding two sub-35 floors in nine rounds, the value proposition breaks.
The sell call isn't about the ceiling being gone. It's about the floor being too real, too recurring, at this price point.
The Call: Exit While the Average Still Holds the Price
The sell window is now — while the 84.5 nominal average is still holding the $313.7k price. Another floor score like R9 will break it, and you'll be exiting at $280k-ish into a price that already tells the story for you.
For me, this is a clean sell. The R8 buy was correct in context. But two sub-35 games from a ruck averaging 84.5 is the reliability line the registry draws, and R9 crossed it. Don't wait for R10 to confirm what R9 already has.
The ceiling doesn't justify the floor risk anymore. Get out while the average is doing the work for you.
Updated: June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
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