Skip to main content

You Bought Curnow After the 128. The Registry Said Sell in Round 8. Here's Where You Are Now.

Curnow scored 128 in R7 and the registry called buy. Since then: 19, DNP, 34. Season average 44.5, BE 50, cash gen negative. The sell call has been on since R8.

3 min read

You Bought Curnow After the 128. The Registry Said Sell in Round 8. Here's Where You Are Now.

One massive score changed the narrative. The underlying numbers never did.

The 128 was real. Seven goals, six contested marks, coach Dean Cox publicly backing Charlie Curnow as a key piece of Sydney's forward structure. After an R6 watch verdict at 70, R7 looked like the turn — the score that rewrites the season. The registry moved to buy. Coaches jumped in around $348k-ish.

Then R8 happened.

The Number Coaches Are Still Anchoring To

Curnow opened 2026 at $377k and spent the first half of the season bleeding. R1: 44. R2: 33. R3: didn't play. Price slid from $377k to $313k through R5. Cash gen was deeply negative for months.

R6: 70 in a Sydney 41-point win. First above-BE score since opening round. Verdict moved to watch.

R7: 128. Seven goals, six contested marks. Verdict flipped to buy.

The problem: 128 is an outlier sitting on top of a chronic underperformance pattern. Season average at the buy call was 49.5 — well below the 51 BE. The one game looked like it changed the story. The underlying average didn't move.

What's Happened Since the R7 Buy Call

R8: 19 in a Sydney win by 17. Not a blowout — a genuine arm-wrestle. Curnow scored 19 anyway. Verdict: sell immediately. Season avg: 49.5. BE: 55. Cash gen: losing.

R9: abdominal scare, didn't play. Empty bench spot, bleeding cash for two rounds straight.

R10: returned. 34 in a six-point Sydney win over Collingwood — a real contest, no excuses from the margin. Below his 50 BE again. Season average: 44.5. Cash gen: -$1,568/wk.

Down from $377k at the open to $338.1k now. Every week you hold, you're compounding losses you could be reinvesting.

Why You're Still Holding — and Why That's the Problem

If you bought after the 128, you're anchored to that $348k-ish entry. The 34 in R10 feels like another R8 blip because the 128 is too vivid to set aside.

The registry doesn't have that anchor. It reads: 44.5 season average, 50 BE, injury risk (abdominal, prior history), cash gen negative six rounds running, one spike that registered as an outlier at the time and confirmed as such by the two rounds after. The 128 is on the record. It doesn't change the verdict.

At $338k you're holding a forward who averages 44.5 with a 50 BE. That's not who you want in your forward line in round 11.

The Call

Sell now. The registry has been saying it since R8. Two more rounds of 19 and 34 have confirmed the call. If he goes 120 in R11, that conversation happens in R11 — the data available right now says trade.


Updated: 20 May 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. Ask our coach about Curnow →

Select a question above to get an answer.

Thursday night rookie intel. Free.

Team announcements, late outs, and the definitive rookie reliability update every Thursday night before lockout.

No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Share this article