Long Scored 92 in a Drawn Game in R8. He's Averaged 60 in Six Rounds Since. He Just Managed 54 Against Richmond.
Ned Long scored 92 in a drawn game in R8 and coaches held. Since then he's averaged 60 across six games and just scored 54 against Richmond. Cash gen is negative at -$3,200/wk. The registry says sell at confidence 8.
Long Scored 92 in a Drawn Game in R8. He's Averaged 60 in Six Rounds Since. He Just Managed 54 Against Richmond.
One elite score in a drawn game is not a season. Strip it out and you're holding a 330k-ish MID averaging 66.
Ned Long scored 92 against Hawthorn in a drawn game back in R8. The kind of score that makes you think "alright, he's turned a corner." Plenty of coaches held on the back of it. Six games later, the evidence is in. He's averaged 60 since that 92. He just scored 54 against Richmond — the easiest fixture in the comp.
Should You Still Be Holding Ned Long?
No. And the data isn't close.
Richmond have conceded the most points in the competition this season. They're getting belted most weeks. If a MID can't crack 55 against Richmond, there's no fixture left that's going to save him.
Long managed 54. In a game Collingwood won comfortably. That's the nail in the coffin for anyone still holding.
The Full Season Tells the Story
| Round | Score | BE | Opponent | |---|---|---|---| | R0 | 70 | 62 | St Kilda | | R1 | 63 | 62 | Adelaide | | R3 | 90 | 60 | GWS | | R4 | 69 | — | Brisbane | | R5 | 48 | 57 | Fremantle | | R6 | 70 | 62 | Carlton | | R8 | 92 | 62 | Hawthorn (draw) | | R9 | 66 | 54 | Geelong | | R10 | 79 | — | Sydney | | R11 | 44 | — | West Coast | | R12 | 44 | 49 | W. Bulldogs | | R15 | 72 | — | Port Adelaide | | R16 | 54 | — | Richmond |
Season average: 66-ish across 13 games. Two scores above 80. Five scores under 55. That's not inconsistency — that's a floor problem.
The R8 92 Was the Outlier, Not the Signal
The 90 in R3 and the 92 in R8 are the two scores coaches point to. Both came in pressure games. Those are the ceiling numbers. But the rest of the season? He's scored under 55 five times out of thirteen games.
Here's the pattern since that R8 92: 66, 79, 44, 44, 72, 54. Average of 60-ish. Would expect more around the 75-80 mark from a MID at this price — and he's nowhere near it.
Cash gen has been negative all season at around -$3,200 per week. His price has dropped from $420k to around $330k-ish. That's $90k in lost value, and every week you hold is another $3k gone.
What the Verdict Registry Says
The registry flipped to sell in R5 after the 48 against Fremantle. It wavered — watch in R6 after a decent 70, watch in R8 after the 92. Then it went sell again in R9 and hasn't budged. By R12, it hit confidence 8 — the highest conviction sell call in the system.
The reasoning is straightforward: 47 games of career history, chronic underperformance at this price point, and a disposal profile that relies on tackles rather than quality touches. The community flagged disposal efficiency as the structural concern back in R8, and the six games since have confirmed it.
The Move
If you're still holding Long at 330k-ish, you're paying $3k per week for the privilege of watching a MID average 60. The R15 72 against Port might have given you a reason to hold one more week. Then 54 against Richmond killed it.
Sell this week. Redirect the cash to a MID who's actually generating — or bank it for your final upgrade window. This isn't a wait-and-see situation. The evidence has been in for five rounds.
Updated: 27 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
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