Four Sell Calls. A Marshall Ruck Split. $27k in Price Erosion. What Holding TDK Has Actually Cost.

The number coaches keep citing — the 118 average — isn't his 2026 St Kilda number. Not even close.

Tom De Koning came to St Kilda carrying a 110-plus ceiling from Carlton. The registry has called sell four times, watch twice, and issued its first hold only in Round 13. His actual 2026 St Kilda scoring line: 73, 38, 66, 88, 75, 75. If you're looking at a 118 in your system and wondering why those numbers don't match, that's the whole article.

The Number Coaches Are Anchoring On

TDK's reputation was built at Carlton — elite ruck output, genuine 110-plus ceiling, the kind of player you lock in and forget about. The 118-ish average floating in some SC systems is a Carlton number, not a 2026 St Kilda number.

Run his six 2026 appearances: 73, 38, 66, 88, 75, 75. That averages 69. You're paying around 400k for a 69-point average from a ruck in a split role. The SC market has been slow to reprice around what he actually is at his new club.

What Changed at St Kilda

Rowan Marshall is the dominant ruck at St Kilda. TDK shares the ruckwork. He gets constrained time-on-ground, limited first-ruck reps, and no clear path to the 60-plus percent contested ruck work he was generating at Carlton. The ceiling is structurally capped — and the registry has been saying so since Round 6.

The verdict history is clear:

• Round 6 (38 vs Adelaide, confidence 8): "Exit before further price erosion."
• Round 7 (66 vs West Coast in a 101-point blowout, confidence 7): "Confirms structural underperformance rather than a one-off."
• Round 8 (88 vs Carlton, confidence 4): "One motivated revenge game doesn't fix structural underperformance. Watch."
• Round 9 (75 in Darwin, confidence 7): "The Round 8 bounce did not hold. Sell."
• Round 12 (75 in a Hawthorn hammering, confidence 7): "The ruck split is not going away and neither is the price erosion."

The Round 8 number (88 against his former club) is the one that cost coaches. The registry flagged it at confidence 4 — the lowest of the season — specifically because motivated revenge games are noise, not signal. Round 9 followed with 75 and the same story. That's the pattern with TDK in 2026: one bounce, back to mid-70s, same constraint.

The Cash Gen Receipts

The cash gen numbers from Round 5 through Round 12 were deeply negative almost every round:

• Round 5: -6,957/wk
• Round 7: -6,613/wk
• Round 8: -7,213/wk
• Round 9: -6,683/wk
• Round 12: -4,611/wk

Price slid from 426k at first appearance down to 399k — a 27k haircut. The 88 revenge game didn't recover a cent; the structural constraint held the price down regardless of the spike.

Where It Sits Now

Round 13 finally produced a hold verdict after 75 in a genuine contest. Cash gen turned positive at 3,479/wk and the price has stabilised around 400k.

"Hold" here is the floor, not a thesis. The registry isn't calling sell right now — price erosion has slowed and the BE sits at a manageable 63. But the Marshall ruck split hasn't changed. TDK's ceiling is still capped by the same structural constraint that has held him to mid-70s output across five of his six rounds.

For me, if you own him and a trade is needed elsewhere, this window with the price stable around 400k is cleaner than waiting for another ceiling question to go unanswered. If you don't own him, there is no thesis here — a 69-point average ruck at 400k-ish with a structural ceiling cap is not the buy that the Carlton 118 number implies.

Wait and see whether he can string three consecutive 80-plus scores before reassessing. Until then, the Marshall split is the constraint you are underwriting every week you hold.

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Updated: 10 July 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.

Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets. Put your TDK case to RookieBible — it'll push back on the 118.