Bailey's Price Has Dropped $72k Since Round 5. He's Averaging 96 at 0% Ownership. The Contract Noise Was Just Noise.
Bailey's price dropped $72k on contract noise while he averaged 96 across 13 games at 0% ownership. The 60% who said ignore the contract talk had it right.
Bailey's Price Has Dropped $72k Since Round 5. He's Averaging 96 at 0% Ownership. The Contract Noise Was Just Noise.
60% of the community said "standard diplomatic non-commitment." They were right. The 28% who sold on fear left money on the table.
The R9 contract question divided coaches into three camps: ignore it, price it in, or wait for clarity. Eight rounds later, Bailey has posted 86, 115, 95, and 100 while his price has dropped from 510k to 438k-ish. 0% ownership. The market sold on noise and never came back.
The Contract Debate That Spooked the Market
The community question was straightforward: should you hold Bailey given his contract uncertainty at Brisbane?
60% said the statement means nothing. Standard diplomatic non-commitment. Lachie Neale and Rankine said identical things before leaving their clubs. For SC purposes — no new information. Hold decisions should rest on form and BE, not contract noise.
28% said the underlying signals point to Bailey leaving. Crows reportedly tabling $10M over 6 years. Brisbane matching on less money. Family ties to SA. Fagan flagging cap constraints early in the season. The read: if no Brisbane announcement comes around R15–16, assume he's gone. The SC ceiling risk — if he moves to a new system mid-cycle, the output could tank.
12% said he'll stay. A minority view, pointing to Brisbane's retention record and reading a house purchase as a positive sign.
What Actually Happened to Bailey's Scores
The contract noise peaked right when Bailey dipped. That timing did the damage:
| Round | Score | Opponent | Disposals | |-------|-------|----------|-----------| | R5 | 130 | North Melbourne | 21 | | R6 | 52 | Melbourne | 14 | | R7 | 123 | Adelaide | 29 | | R8 | 122 | Essendon | 21 | | R9 | 75 | Carlton | 14 | | R10 | 52 | Geelong | 18 | | R11 | 86 | GWS | 17 | | R12 | 115 | Fremantle | 30 | | R13 | 95 | Gold Coast | 24 | | R14 | 100 | Richmond | 25 |
The R9–R10 dip is where the market bailed. Two sub-80 scores right when the contract noise peaked — coaches who were already nervous about the move found their excuse to trade. The registry went to "watch" in R9, held through R10–R11, and by R12 it was back to hold at confidence 8.
The watch call was the right read at the time — flat output plus contract fog is enough to flag it. But Bailey resolved it himself with 115, 95, and 100 in his last three.
The Market Mispriced This
Here's the shape of it:
- Season average: 96 across 13 games
- Last 4 rounds (R11–R14): 86, 115, 95, 100 — that's a 99 average
- Price: 438k-ish (down from 510k peak in R5)
- Ownership: 0%
- BE: 75 (cleared it in 3 of last 4)
A midfielder averaging 96 at 438k would normally be one of the most popular trade targets in the comp. But the contract narrative created a sell trigger that the scores never justified. The registry held firm through every wobble — the R12 verdict at confidence 8 called the R9 watch concern "emphatically resolved."
The price drop is the market catching up to the R9–R10 dip that Bailey has already scored his way out of. By the time the price reflects his 115 and 100, the buying window will have closed again.
The Lesson for Your R17 Trade Table
Contract noise in SuperCoach is almost always irrelevant to the current season. Bailey's club situation might matter for 2027 planning. It doesn't change his R17 score.
Bailey at 438k-ish with a 75 BE and 0% ownership is genuinely unusual for a bloke averaging 96. His scoring pattern is clear — when he's on, he goes 115+ (four tons this year including 130 and 123). When he's off, he dips to 52–75. The floor is liveable and the ceiling is premium.
If you have the cash and need midfield depth, this is the definition of a contrarian play — wait and see for me on whether the R14 ton against Richmond carries into the back half, but the data says the ceiling is real and the price is wrong.
The 60% who said "ignore the contract talk, judge on form" had it right from the start.
Check Bailey's full profile, verdict history, and live signals →
Updated: 24 June 2026. Data sourced from RookieBible intel registry.
Pre-briefed. Opinionated. The more you challenge it, the sharper it gets.
Thursday night rookie intel. Free.
Team announcements, late outs, and the definitive rookie reliability update every Thursday night before lockout.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
Related articles
Blake Acres Missed 10 Rounds. He Just Scored 108. His Price Hasn't Moved.
Acres was a preseason buy pick who didn't play until Round 12. He's been $377.7k for months. Then 108 in a Carlton road win — the registry just called buy.
Read article →The Registry Called Sell on Brayden Cook Five Times. It Just Called Buy.
The registry called sell on Cook for five straight rounds. His price barely moved. Then he scored 70 in a 1-point thriller and the call flipped.
Read article →He Was Averaging 137. He Scored 41 in Round 13. The Registry Called Sell. Here's the Pattern It Saw.
A 137-average mid in a Sydney side that was winning. Round 13: 41. 29 below BE. Ownership at 0%. The community logic says you don't sell on one bad game. The registry disagreed. Here's why.
Read article →